On Friday, coffee prices dropped significantly, with July arabica coffee (KCN26) closing down 8.80 cents (3.19%) at a nine-month low, and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) declining by 122 cents (3.50%), marking a one-week low. This downturn is attributed to a weakening Brazilian real, which fell to a five-week low against the dollar, encouraging export sales from Brazil’s coffee producers.
Analyses project a substantial increase in Brazil’s coffee crop, with the Coffee Trading Academy forecasting a 12% year-over-year rise in the 2026/27 harvest to 71.4 million bags. Additionally, StoneX estimates a record production of 75.3 million bags for the same period, contributing to a projected global coffee surplus of 10 million bags in 2026. Meanwhile, Brazi’s green coffee exports for April decreased by 1.3% year-over-year to 2.76 million bags, and ICE inventories for robusta coffee have fallen to a two-year low of 3,631 lots.
Contrastingly, Vietnam’s coffee exports surged, with a reported 15.8% year-over-year increase in early 2026, reaching 810,000 metric tons. This trend is expected to exert further downward pressure on robusta prices amid the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted global supply chains and increased shipping costs.
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