On July 21, arabica coffee prices increased by 3.43% to $9.80 per pound, while July robusta coffee rose by 1.5% to $51 per ton. This surge comes as the Brazilian real reached a 2.25-year high against the dollar, discouraging coffee exports from Brazil.
Current market conditions are exacerbated by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted global coffee supplies and increased shipping costs. Additionally, coffee inventories have fallen sharply; ICE arabica stocks reached a 2.25-month low of 494,508 bags, while ICE robusta inventories dropped to a 16.25-month low of 3,755 lots.
Future projections indicate a substantial increase in Brazil’s coffee production, with estimates for the 2026/27 harvest reaching up to 75.9 million bags, a 12% rise from the previous year. Conversely, Vietnam’s coffee exports rose by 15.8% year-on-year for the period of January-April 2026, contributing to bearish trends in robusta prices.
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