As of today, September arabica coffee (KCU25) is up by +0.70 (+0.25%), while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) has decreased by -85 (-2.38%). Arabica coffee is supported by limited rainfall forecasts in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions, while robusta coffee prices have dropped to a 1.5-week low due to increased coffee supplies from Vietnam, which reported a 4.1% year-over-year rise in coffee exports for January to June 2025, totaling 943,000 MT.
Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee cooperative reported a coffee harvest completion rate of 40% as of July 4, down from 52% last year. The USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production to rise by 0.5% year-over-year to 65 million bags and Vietnam’s to increase by 6.9% year-over-year to 31 million bags. Meanwhile, the global coffee production for 2025/26 is projected to hit a record 178.68 million bags, although arabica production is anticipated to decline.
The current market environment has led to a decline in coffee prices over the past two months, supported by rising inventories; ICE-monitored arabica stocks stood at 832,430 bags, down from a 5-month high. Despite this, robusta coffee inventories fell to a 7-week low of 5,108 lots in late June, before increasing to 5,270 lots today, illustrating the mixed supply dynamics in the coffee market.
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