On Monday, September arabica coffee (KCU25) closed down 3.92%, while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) dropped 4.11%, marking a contract low for arabica and a 7.5-month low for the July nearest-futures contract. The advancing coffee harvest in Brazil, reported to be 31% complete as of June 27 by Cooxupe—a major coffee cooperative—contributes to the declining prices.
Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to rise by 0.5% year-on-year to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s production is expected to increase by 6.9% to a four-year high of 31 million bags. However, below-normal rainfall, particularly in Minas Gerais, and smaller exports from Brazil are supportive for prices despite rising inventories. Vietnam’s coffee production for 2023/24 is anticipated to dip by 20% to 1.472 million metric tons.
The USDA’s report indicates a projected global coffee production increase of 2.5% for 2025/26 to a record 178.68 million bags, despite a decrease in arabica production. Volcafe forecasts a global arabica coffee deficit of 8.5 million bags for the 2025/26 marketing year.
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