Coffee prices displayed mixed results on Monday, July 26, with July arabica coffee (KCN26) closing down 0.60 points (-0.24%), while July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) increased by 17 points (+0.51%). The decline in arabica prices can be attributed to the ongoing harvest in Brazil and a weakened Brazilian real, which fell to a two-month low against the dollar, encouraging export sales.
Brazil’s coffee crop is projected to reach a record 71.9 million bags for the 2026/27 season, a 14% year-over-year increase, according to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Robust exports from Vietnam, the largest robusta producer, further pressured prices, with a reported 7.9% year-over-year rise in coffee exports for the first five months of 2026. Meanwhile, ICE arabica coffee inventories have decreased to a six-month low of 412,422 bags, while robusta inventories are at a two-year low of 3,732 lots.
Concerns about an impending El Niño weather pattern could potentially disrupt Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop, as the U.S. NOAA predicts an 82% chance of emerging conditions. Additionally, Brazil’s April green coffee exports fell by 1.3% from the previous year, and global coffee exports overall decreased by 0.3% year-over-year to 138.66 million bags for the current marketing year.
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