On September 6, 2023, arabica coffee prices fell by 0.96% to $3.15 per pound, while robusta coffee prices decreased by 1.52% to $3.87 per pound. This decline follows forecasts of dry weather in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions, particularly Minas Gerais, where no rain was reported in the week ending August 2, allowing farmers to expedite their harvests.
By the end of July, Brazil’s coffee harvest was only 67.3% complete, trailing behind the previous year’s 74.2%. Furthermore, robusta inventories on the ICE climbed to 4,254 lots, marking a 4.25-month high. In contrast, ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 251,417 bags. The USDA forecasts a 6% increase in global coffee production for the 2026-27 season, driven by improved conditions in Brazil.
Vietnam’s coffee exports surged by 21.1% year-over-year to 1.31 million metric tons in 2026, contributing to downward pressure on robusta prices. Concerns over the potential impact of an El Niño weather pattern were also noted, with predictions indicating possible adverse effects on Brazil’s 2026-27 coffee crop.
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