On September 25, 2023, arabica coffee (KCU26) prices rose by 0.66%, up $2.15, while robusta coffee (RMU26) fell by 1.16%, down $0.45. The increase in arabica prices is attributed to forecasts of rains in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions, which may delay the harvest and affect bean quality.
Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest is currently 64% complete, trailing behind last year’s 77% and the five-year average of 70%, according to Safras & Mercado. Additionally, ICE arabica coffee inventories have decreased to a 2.25-year low of 329,870 bags, while ICE robusta inventories have increased to a 3.75-month high of 4,239 lots.
Concerns related to the El Niño weather pattern, expected to be one of the strongest in over 75 years, may impact Brazil’s coffee production next year. This scenario raises fears of potential disruptions in tree flowering during the crucial September and October months.
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