**Coffee Prices Rally Amid Supply Concerns**
On July 3, coffee prices surged, with July arabica coffee (KCN26) rising by 2.06% to $5.30 and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) increasing by 0.50% to $18. This uptick follows concerns regarding persistent rain in Brazil, which may delay the coffee harvest. Vaisala forecasts moderate to heavy rainfall across Brazil’s coffee-growing regions this week.
ICE arabica coffee inventories have reached a 6.75-month low of 398,940 bags, while robusta inventories are at a two-year low of 3,857 lots. Additionally, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, potentially impacting coffee production in 2026/27. Current forecasts predict Brazil’s coffee crop could peak at 71.9 million bags, up 14% year-over-year. In contrast, soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, have increased by 7.9% to 922,000 MT for 2026.
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