On Monday, July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26) closed at $3,879, up $103 (+2.73%), while July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) rose to $2,972, gaining $86 (+2.98%). Cocoa prices hit 1.5-week highs due to a weaker dollar, which fell to a 1-week low, prompting short-covering amid an excessively short position by funds.
Data revealed that funds increased their short positions in NY cocoa to 27,286, the highest in over three years. Meanwhile, the Ivory Coast reported a significant shipment of 1.95 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa this marketing year, an 18.9% increase compared to last year. However, expected production for 2025/26 is projected to fall to 1.65 MMT, a 10.8% decline from 2024/25.
Concerns over a potential “Super El Niño,” with a 67% probability forecasted by NOAA, may impact cocoa production in West Africa. Additionally, cocoa inventories reached a 1.75-year high of 2,929,074 bags on June 5, further complicating market conditions.
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