On Friday, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) closed up by +86 (+1.52%), while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) rose by +4 (+0.10%). This increase was supported by a -0.3% decline in the dollar index, which is typically favorable for commodities.
Cumulative cocoa shipments from the Ivory Coast reached 2.11 million metric tons (MMT) this marketing year (October 1, 2025 – August 2, 2026), reflecting a 20% year-over-year increase. Additionally, ICE cocoa inventories hit a two-year high of 3,384,965 bags last week but fell to 3,335,656 bags by Thursday.
Ghana’s cocoa production is projected to decline in the 2026/27 season to between 450,000 and 550,000 MT from an estimated 750,000 MT for 2025/26 due to various factors, including aging farms and adverse weather risks from El Niño. Conversely, the 2025/26 harvest is expected to yield 750,000 MT, a 25.6% increase from the previous year.
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