Cocoa prices are declining due to increased supplies, with September ICE NY cocoa down 0.17% to $10 and September ICE London cocoa down 0.16% to $7 as of today. Ghana’s cocoa board reported a harvest of 750,000 metric tons (MT) for the 2025/26 season, an increase of 25.6% from 597,000 MT in the previous season. This forecast suggests a growing supply amid rising inventories, with ICE cocoa stocks reaching a two-year high of 3,384,965 bags.
Mixed demand factors contributed to volatility in cocoa prices, as the European Cocoa Association noted a 4.6% decline in Q2 European cocoa grindings to 316,366 MT, while North American grindings rose by 7.7% to 109,659 MT. Notably, Nigerian cocoa exports increased by 30% year-over-year in June, totaling 18,922 MT. Additionally, forecasts indicate that Ghana’s cocoa production could drop to between 450,000 MT and 550,000 MT for the 2026/27 season due to agricultural challenges.
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