**Cocoa Prices Rise Amid Surplus Reductions and Supply Concerns**
On April 19, 2023, cocoa prices increased, with July ICE NY cocoa closing up 30 points (+0.89%) and May ICE London cocoa up 22 points (+0.88%). The rise is attributed to a revised forecast from StoneX, which reduced its global cocoa surplus estimates for 2025/26 to 247,000 MT (down from 287,000 MT) and for 2026/27 to 149,000 MT (down from 267,000 MT). This adjustment comes in light of potential risks to the West African cocoa crop due to an anticipated El Niño weather event.
Currently, the global cocoa supply outlook remains mixed. The Ivory Coast’s cocoa shipments for the marketing year reached 1.51 million MT, a 0.7% increase from the previous year. Conversely, Nigerian cocoa exports in February dropped by 4.6% year-over-year to 40,110 MT, with projected production for 2025/26 expected to decline by 11% to 305,000 MT. Despite these localized supply issues, total ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 20-month high of 2,633,450 bags, reflecting overall bearish conditions amidst weak chocolate demand, evidenced by a 1.3% decline in North American chocolate candy sales in Q1 2023.
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