Cocoa prices surged today, with July ICE NY cocoa (CCN26) rising by 9.49% to $393 and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN26) increasing by 5.09% to $167. This comes as heavy rains in the Ivory Coast have flooded roads, obstructing access for farmers and threatening cocoa yields.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño,” which could reduce cocoa yields in West Africa. Current estimates indicate that Ivory Coast’s cocoa exports have reached 1.95 million metric tons (MMT) this marketing year, an 18.9% increase from last year, even as forecasts project a production decline of 10.8% for 2025/26 to 1.65 MMT.
Recent data shows ICE cocoa inventories have peaked at 2,929,074 bags, and weak demand has been noted, with North American cocoa grindings down 3.8% year-on-year. Conversely, April cocoa exports from Nigeria experienced a 20% decline year-on-year.
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