On Thursday, September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) closed down 73 points (-1.41%), while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) fell 92 points (-2.33%). Cocoa prices reached nearly 3.5-week lows amid increased global supplies and mixed demand reports.
In the current marketing year, the Ivory Coast has shipped 2.11 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa, a 21% increase from last year, while Nigeria’s cocoa exports rose 30% year-on-year to 18,922 MT in June. However, the recent rise in ICE cocoa inventories to a two-year high of 3,375,119 bags adds bearish pressure to prices.
Despite a 4.6% decline in Q2 European cocoa grindings to 316,366 MT, North American cocoa grindings increased by 7.7% to 109,659 MT. Projections for the 2026/27 global cocoa surplus have been revised downward to 25,000 MT due to potential crop risks from an El Niño weather pattern impacting West Africa.
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