Cocoa prices experienced a downturn on September 4, 2023, with December ICE NY cocoa down 1.89% to $5,900 and December ICE London cocoa down 1.69% to $4,296. The decline is attributed to increased supply, particularly from the Ivory Coast, which reported cocoa shipments of 2.14 million metric tons (MMT) for the marketing year starting October 1, 2025, an 18% increase compared to the previous year. Additionally, cocoa harvests in the Ivory Coast rose to 2.06 MMT, up 30% year-over-year.
ICE cocoa inventories reached a two-year high of 3,436,742 bags before settling at 3,421,136 bags, contributing to price pressures. In contrast, Ghana, the second-largest cocoa producer, anticipates a 13% decrease in its 2026/27 cocoa crop to 650,000 MT, exacerbated by various agricultural challenges. This mixed outlook comes on the heels of a reported increase in Ghana’s cocoa production for the 2025/26 season, which yielded 750,000 MT, a 25.6% improvement from the previous year.
Demand trends show a drop in European cocoa grindings by 4.6% in Q2, reaching 316,366 MT, while North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly increased by 7.7% to 109,659 MT. Asian cocoa demand also rose, with grindings increasing by 25% year-over-year to 224,646 MT. Market analysts anticipate that future weather conditions, especially the El Niño effect, could impact global cocoa yields moving forward.
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