On April 14, cocoa prices rose with July ICE NY cocoa up +22 (+0.65%) and May ICE London cocoa up +20 (+0.80%) due to a reduced global surplus forecast. StoneX decreased its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate from 267,000 MT to 149,000 MT, attributing this change to potential risks from an El Niño weather event affecting West African cocoa crops.
Inventory levels for cocoa reached a 20-month high of 2,633,450 bags, indicating robust supply. However, cocoa grindings in North America and Europe fell by 3.8% and 7.8% year-over-year respectively in Q1, with European grindings marking the lowest level for a first quarter in 17 years. In contrast, Asian cocoa grindings unexpectedly increased by 5.2% year-over-year to 223,503 MT.
Weather conditions in West Africa remain concerning, as drought is affecting cocoa-producing regions, with over half of the Ivory Coast and two-thirds of Ghana facing dry conditions. Ghana recently cut its cocoa farmer price by nearly 30%, while the Ivory Coast announced a 57% reduction in pay effective for the mid-crop harvest.
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