On September 5, 2023, cocoa prices increased significantly, with September ICE NY cocoa (CCU25) rising by 3.77% to +309 and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU25) climbing 3.40% to +186. This surge follows concerns over a slowdown in cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast, which shipped 1.75 million metric tons (MMT) from October 1 to July 27, a 6.1% year-on-year increase but a decline from December’s 35% growth. As of the latest data, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in U.S. ports reached a 10.5-month high of 2,368,141 bags.
Adding to pressures in the market, concerns about dry weather in West Africa and the poor quality of the mid-crop cocoa are heightening fears about future supply. The Ghana Cocoa Board has projected an 8.3% increase in Ghana’s cocoa production, forecasting it to reach 650,000 MT for 2025/26. In contrast, reports indicated that European cocoa grindings fell by 7.2% year-on-year in Q2, and Asian grindings witnessed a 16.3% decline, the lowest in eight years.
Despite the immediate price increase, backlash from chocolate producers like Lindt & Spruengli AG and Barry Callebaut AG regarding weak sales and high cocoa prices continues to pose a bearish outlook for the cocoa market. Overall, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has projected a global cocoa deficit of 494,000 MT for the 2023/24 season, the largest in over six decades.
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