On Tuesday, December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed down 2.36%, falling by -6.85, while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) declined by 1.53%, down -54. Coffee prices were impacted by favorable growing conditions in Brazil, which saw 59.4 mm of rainfall in the critical flowering stage, significantly above the historical average.
Brazil’s total coffee exports in August reached a record high of 4.155 million bags, up 31% year-over-year, driven by strong arabica and robusta shipments. The International Coffee Organization projected a record global coffee crop for the 2025/26 season, with production expected to hit 183.6 million bags, resulting in a 3 million bag surplus.
Inventory levels have further influenced prices, with ICE arabica coffee stocks at a 27-year low of 217,646 bags, while robusta inventories increased to a 9.5-month high of 5,043 lots. Concerns over the El Niño weather pattern affecting Brazil’s future coffee production add to market volatility.
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