July arabica coffee prices fell by $3.20 (1.13%) to $280.05, while July ICE robusta coffee prices dropped by $14 (0.40%) to $3,515, amid pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar.
Coffee supplies are tightening, with ICE arabica inventories hitting a 2.5-month low of 477,045 bags, and robusta inventories at a 2-year low of 3,664 lots. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has further disrupted global coffee supplies, increasing shipping costs and costs for coffee importers. In Brazil, coffee exports decreased by 10% year-over-year to 2.65 million bags in March, while Vietnam reported a 15.8% year-over-year increase in coffee exports for January-April, totaling 810,000 MT.
Projections indicate that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest may increase by 12% year-over-year to 71.4 million bags. The USDA forecasts a 2.0% rise in global coffee production for 2025/26, reaching 178.848 million bags, despite a projected decline in Brazilian arabica production by 3.1% to 63 million bags.
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