**Oil Prices Surge Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions**
On Tuesday, June WTI crude oil closed up $4.11, a gain of 4.19%, while June RBOB gasoline rose by $0.0979, or 2.72%. The increase in crude and gasoline prices follows President Trump’s remarks questioning the viability of a ceasefire with Iran, raising concerns about potential escalations that could affect the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing conflict has already curbed Persian Gulf crude output by approximately 14.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and drawn down nearly 500 million barrels from global stockpiles.
Additionally, a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicated that about 14 million bpd of global oil supply has been disrupted due to the U.S.-Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. With roughly 20% of the world’s oil transiting through the strait, energy supply constraints are expected to worsen. Meanwhile, OPEC+ plans to increase output by 188,000 bpd in June is complicated by the conflict’s ongoing impact on regional producers.
As of May 1, U.S. crude oil inventories were reported at 0.7% above the seasonal five-year average, while gasoline inventories were 3.1% below. Baker Hughes also noted an increase of two active U.S. oil rigs to 410, still near the 4.25-year low recorded late last year.
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