Wheat prices surged across major exchanges on Tuesday, with Chicago SRW rising by 32 to 42 cents, KC HRW futures up by the 45-cent limit, and MPLS spring wheat increasing by 30 to 40.5 cents. This comes after the USDA’s morning Crop Production report revealed winter wheat production at 1.048 billion bushels (bbu), significantly below the estimated 1.211 bbu.
In the report, HRW production was projected at 514.8 million bushels (mbu), SRW at 300.9 mbu, and white winter variety at 231.8 mbu, leading to a total wheat production estimate of 1.561 bbu—186 mbu below average estimates. Additionally, new crop US stocks were anticipated at 762 mbu, falling short of the 845 mbu estimate due to lower production figures.
As of the latest Crop Progress data, the US spring wheat crop is 53% planted and 23% emerged, outpacing the 5-year average for planting. Conversely, only 61% of the winter wheat crop has headed, with condition ratings dropping to 28% good/excellent, the lowest for this period since 2000 in HRW states.
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