Coffee prices fell sharply on June 20, 2023, with September arabica coffee (KCU25) down 4.65% to close at a 5-1/2 month low and July robusta coffee (RMN25) down 3.99%, reaching a 13-month low. This decline was influenced by updated weather forecasts indicating no frost risk in Brazil’s key coffee-growing regions, São Paulo and Minas Gerais.
Brazil’s coffee harvest is currently 35% complete as of June 11, slightly behind last year’s 37% but in line with the 5-year average. The Cooxupe coffee co-op reported a 24.3% completion rate as of June 20, down from 34.2% last year. Additionally, the USDA forecasts a 0.5% year-over-year increase in Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is projected to rise by 6.9% to 31 million bags.
Brazil’s low rainfall in key growing areas supports growing coffee prices; however, the country’s May green coffee exports fell by 36% year-over-year to 2.8 million bags. In Vietnam, production is forecast to decrease by 20% for the 2023/24 crop year, marking the smallest crop in four years.
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