On September 19, arabica coffee futures (KCU26) closed down 0.75% at -2.45, while robusta coffee futures (RMU26) fell 1.70% with a decline of 66 points. Updated weather forecasts indicating reduced rain chances in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions could accelerate the ongoing coffee harvest, contributing to a decrease in prices.
As of July 15, Brazil’s coffee harvest was only 64% complete, trailing behind last year’s 77% and the five-year average of 70%. In contrast, ICE robusta coffee inventories grew to a 3.75-month high of 4,239 lots on September 18. Meanwhile, Brazil’s green coffee exports surged 14.4% year-on-year, reaching 2.64 million bags in June 2023, adding downward pressure on prices amid fluctuating trading conditions.
Concerns about the potential impact of the El Niño weather pattern are also at play, with the US Climate Prediction Center forecasting one of the strongest occurrences in over 75 years, potentially affecting crop production in both Brazil and Asia later this year.
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