On Friday, December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closed at $279.40, up $4.00 (+1.45%), while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) rose $5 (+0.15%). This shift followed a decline in the dollar index, which prompted short covering in coffee futures.
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) recently projected a record global coffee crop for the 2025/26 season, with production anticipated to rise by 4.4% year-on-year to 183.6 million bags and consumption decreasing by 0.9% to 180.6 million bags. This creates a surplus of 3 million bags, the first in five years.
Brazil’s coffee exports soared by 31% year-on-year in August to 4.155 million bags, with robusta and arabica exports rising by 54% and 26%, respectively. Beneficial growing conditions in both Brazil and Vietnam may continue to affect coffee prices, especially with the looming El Niño weather pattern that could impact next year’s crop.
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