On September 20, coffee prices showed a notable recovery after hitting three-month lows, with December arabica coffee (KCZ26) closing up 1.32% at +3.60 and November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) rising 1.75% at +57. The increase comes amid technical buying as short positions were unwound, responding to oversold conditions.
The International Coffee Organization reported on September 10 that global coffee production for 2025/26 is projected to rise 4.4% year-over-year to a record 183.6 million bags, forecasted against a consumption decline of 0.9% to 180.6 million bags, resulting in a surplus of 3 million bags—the first in five years. Meanwhile, Brazilian coffee exports soared 31% year-over-year in August, reaching a record high of 4.155 million bags, contributing to increased global supply pressures.
Factors driving this price fluctuation include beneficial growing conditions in Brazil and Vietnam, as well as inventory trends—ICE arabica inventories fell to a 27-year low of 217,646 bags before recovering, while robusta inventories hit a 10-month high. Concerns over the potential impact of the El Niño weather pattern on future crops are also fostering uncertainty within the market.
5 Stocks Our Experts Predict Could Double In the Next Year
By submitting your email, you'll also get a free pivot & flow membership. A free daily market overview. You can unsubscribe at any time.
