July arabica coffee prices rose by +3.70 cents (+1.40%) today, while July robusta coffee increased by +27 cents (+0.82%). This upward movement follows a three-week sell-off that pushed prices into oversold territory, triggering technical buying and fund short-covering.
Market expectations of a larger Brazilian coffee crop are pressuring prices. Projections indicate Brazil’s harvest for 2026/27 could increase by 12% year-on-year to 71.4 million bags, with estimates hinting at a record of 75.9 million bags. Meanwhile, robusta coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest producer, are bullish for prices, as exports rose by 15.8% year-on-year to 810,000 metric tons in early 2026.
ICE inventories have declined recently, providing some price support; robusta stocks are at a two-year low of 3,631 lots, while arabica inventories are at a 2.75-month low of 462,777 bags. However, a global coffee surplus is projected for 2026, potentially expanding to 10 million bags, as the International Coffee Organization reported a slight decrease in current global coffee exports.
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