On July 12, 2023, sugar prices are rising as July NY world sugar #11 (SBN26) increased by +0.16 (+1.15%), and Aug London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) rose by +12.50 (+2.94%). This price increase is attributed to concerns over the potential impact of an emerging El Niño weather pattern on the upcoming monsoon in India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer, with rainfall estimates being downgraded to 90% of the long-term average.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts an 82% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July, which could disrupt rainfall in major sugar-producing countries including Brazil, India, and Thailand. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) anticipates a global sugar production peak of 182 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season, with a reported global surplus of 2.2 million metric tons. However, they also project a decline to 180 million metric tons for the 2026/27 season, resulting in a deficit of 262,000 metric tons, primarily due to El Niño impacts.
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