Corn Futures Rise Amid Production Adjustments
Corn Prices Surge as Latest Reports Reveal Yield Declines
Corn futures concluded the Friday trading session with significant gains, rising between 14 to 15 cents for most front-month contracts. The September contracts and beyond experienced smaller increases, rising only 1 to 4 ¼ cents. The March contract finished up 19 ¾ cents for the week, indicating a robust midday performance with contracts up 10 to 12 points. The national average cash corn price, as reported by cmdtyView, also increased by 11 3/4 cents, settling at $4.38 1/2.
USDA Reports Lower Corn Yield for 2024
The USDA’s annual Crop Production report released recently indicated that the U.S. corn yield for 2024 is projected at 179.3 bushels per acre (bpa). This figure is significantly lower than the average trade estimate and represents a decrease of 3.8 bpa from the previous November report. Harvested acreage has risen by 196,000 acres; however, total production estimates have dropped by 276 million bushels (mbu) to 14.867 billion bushels (bbu). The tighter production statistics have resulted in December 1 stocks at 12.074 bbu, down by 97 mbu from last year and 73 mbu below prior estimates. The WASDE report now projects a carryout estimated at 1.54 bbu, a decrease of 198 mbu from last month. Additionally, export predictions have been reduced by 25 mbu due to limited supplies, and feed and residual projections were also cut by 50 mbu. A slight increase in the cash average price of corn was noted, up 15 cents to $4.25.
Global Stocks Decline While Export Sales Drop
No adjustments were made by the USDA for South American crops. However, global ending stocks were lowered to 293.34 million metric tons (MMT), a reduction of 3.1 MMT since December, and nearly 1.5 MMT below estimates. The weekly Export Sales report indicated only 444,950 metric tons of corn bookings for the 2024/25 season during the holiday week ending January 2. This figure fell short of the expected range of 0.7 to 1.4 MMT, marking a significant decrease of 42.7% from the previous week. Colombia emerged as the largest buyer, securing 177,100 MT, while Japan and Mexico purchased 91,100 MT and 77,900 MT, respectively.
Corn Futures Closing Prices
Mar 25 Corn closed at $4.70 1/2, an increase of 14 1/2 cents.
Nearby Cash was at $4.38 1/2, up 11 3/4 cents.
May 25 Corn closed at $4.79 1/2, up 15 cents.
Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.82, up 14 cents.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are provided for informational purposes only. For more information, please refer to the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
