Cotton Futures End Week with Mixed Results Amid Market Pressures
Latest USDA Data Influences Prices
Cotton futures ended the week on a down note, with losses ranging from 7 to 19 points on Friday. Bearish data from the USDA and various outside market factors contributed to this downward trend. Despite the daily loss, December futures managed to gain 81 points throughout the week. The broader market showed pressures as crude oil fell by $1.85 per barrel, and the US dollar index rose by 460 points.
Crop Production Report Indicates Slight Production Drop
According to the morning’s Crop Production report from NASS, US cotton production has decreased by 10,000 bales, resulting in a total of 14.19 million bales. The export projection also saw a decline of 200,000 bales, bringing the estimate down to 11.3 million bales. This adjustment has subsequently increased the ending stocks projection by 200,000 bales to a total of 4.3 million. Globally, the ending stocks figure has decreased by 580,000 bales to 75.75 million, primarily due to a smaller carryover from the 2023/24 crop year.
Strong Ginning Activity Reported
The bi-monthly Cotton Ginnings report revealed that 2.402 million running bales (RB) were ginned in the last two weeks of October. By November 1, US gins had ginned 4.696 million RB of cotton, marking the highest level seen on this date in five years.
Traders’ Positions Show Increased Short Interest
Data from the Commitment of Traders report issued by CFTC shows that speculators in cotton futures and options held a net short position of 10,917 contracts as of November 5, reflecting an increase of 268 contracts from the previous week.
Market Activity on November 7
The Seam reported 6,272 bales of online sales on November 7, with an average price of 69.11 cents per pound. ICE cotton stocks remained unchanged as of Thursday, with 174 bales of certified stocks. The Cotlook A Index decreased by 20 points on November 7, settling at 82.00 cents per pound. Additionally, the USDA’s Adjusted World Price (AWP) fell by another 58 points this week, landing at 57.96 cents per pound in Thursday afternoon’s report.
Closing Prices for Cotton Futures
On the trading front, March 2025 cotton closed at 73.25 cents per pound, down 18 points. Meanwhile, May 2025 cotton ended at 74.59 cents per pound, down 19 points, and July 2025 cotton closed at 75.76 cents per pound, down 14 points.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
