**Sugar Prices Decline Amid Global Supply Concerns**
On July 10, New York world sugar #11 (SBN26) dropped by 0.04 cents (-0.29%) to reach a 1.75-month low, while August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) fell by 3.00 points (-0.67%), marking a 2.5-week low. These declines are attributed to a significant 5% drop in WTI crude oil prices, potentially leading sugar mills to increase sugar production at the expense of ethanol.
The India Meteorological Department reported a cumulative monsoon rainfall that is 26% below normal as of June 12, raising concerns about sugar production in major regions like India, Brazil, and Thailand due to the impact of El Niño. The U.S. NOAA estimates a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year, further complicating forecasts. In a shift in supply estimates, sugar trader Czarnikow revised the 2026/27 global sugar balance from a surplus of 1.4 million metric tons (MMT) to a deficit of 100,000 MMT, reflecting increased production of ethanol over sugar in Brazil.
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