As of July, world sugar prices are mixed with NY sugar #11 down 1.67% to -0.25 and Aug London ICE white sugar #5 up 0.02% to +0.10. Sugar prices faced pressure following a drop in crude oil prices of more than 5%, potentially leading global sugar mills to prioritize sugar production over ethanol, thereby increasing sugar supplies.
Recent forecasts from the International Sugar Organization predict a record global sugar production of 182 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, a 3.5% increase year-on-year, with a surplus estimate of 2.2 MMT. However, for the 2026/27 season, a slight decline to 180 MMT is expected, with a forecasted deficit of 262,000 MT due to possible adverse weather conditions in India and Thailand.
Notably, India’s ongoing four-month ban on sugar exports remains in effect until September 30, 2023, aimed at stabilizing domestic supplies. Additionally, Brazilian sugar production for the 2026/27 season is projected at 39.5 MMT, significantly lower than earlier estimates, owing to sugarcane allocation towards ethanol production amidst rising gasoline prices.
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