Declining Sugar Prices Driven by Demand Worries

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On Friday, October NY world sugar #11 (SBV26) closed down by 0.06 points (0.34%), while December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ26) saw a slight increase of 0.20 points (0.04%). Sugar prices had declined to three-week lows but recovered slightly, pressured by a significant delivery of 499,350 MT against the October London sugar contract, marking a 91% increase year-over-year.

Recent data indicated that speculative commodity funds have taken larger long positions in sugar, with a net increase of 28,055 positions in the week ending September 8, reaching a total of 160,551— the highest in nearly three years. Meanwhile, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts a global sugar deficit of 200,000 MT for 2026/27, following a record surplus of 1.1 MMT for 2025/26. Contributing factors include lower sugar production forecasts in Thailand, projected to fall by 17% year-over-year to 10 MMT, and adverse weather conditions exacerbated by a strong El Niño event affecting major sugar-producing regions.

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