On September 4, cocoa prices saw a rise with December ICE NY cocoa increasing by $136 (+2.52%) and December ICE London cocoa #7 climbing $141 (+3.53%). This surge is primarily due to weather concerns in West Africa, where forecasts indicate below-normal rains in the Ivory Coast, risking reduced cocoa output for the 2026/27 crop season.
Recent agricultural data shows the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, reported a substantial 30% increase in harvests this season, totaling 2.06 million metric tons (MMT) from June 2025 to June 2026. However, the current international marketing year has seen a drop in shipments, with 2.14 MMT moving to ports, up 18% year-over-year, but the Ivory Coast’s recent marketing adjustment has complicated the outlook.
Additionally, concerns about reduced cocoa production in Ghana are contributing to price support, with projections indicating a decline to 650,000 MT in 2026/27, down 13% from 750,000 MT in the previous season. Ultimately, the combination of weather risks, evolving crop assessments, and changing demand dynamics is influencing the cocoa market significantly.
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