On Thursday, July NY world sugar #11 closed at $0.0144 per pound, up 0.21%, while August London ICE white sugar #5 closed at $4.47 per ton, up 0.99%. The increase was driven by a weaker dollar that encouraged short covering in sugar futures, despite initial declines due to a 3% drop in crude oil prices, which could lead to increased sugar production amid concerns about global supplies.
Recent data from Unica revealed a significant boost in Brazil’s sugar production for 2026/27, rising 55.3% year-on-year to 2.475 million metric tons. Additionally, Thailand’s sugar exports from January to April 2026 also saw a 29% increase year-on-year at 1.6 million metric tons. However, the effects of El Niño are expected to potentially disrupt sugar production, particularly in Brazil, India, and Thailand, with an 82% chance of El Niño conditions persisting through the year.
The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar surplus of 2.2 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season, but anticipates a decline in global sugar production in 2026/27, estimating 180 million metric tons and a deficit of 262,000 metric tons due to adverse weather conditions impacting harvests.
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