On May 1, July arabica coffee (KCN26) closed down 0.90 cents (-0.31%) amid a stronger dollar, while July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) did not trade due to UK markets being closed for the May Day holiday. Concerns over potential disruptions to global coffee supplies, particularly due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, initially supported prices before they declined.
Brazil’s expected coffee production for the 2026/27 harvest is estimated to increase by 12% year-on-year to 71.4 million bags, with other projections suggesting it could reach a record 75.9 million bags. In Vietnam, coffee exports from January to April 2026 surged by 15.8% to 810,000 metric tons, reflecting robust production growth. As of April 21, ICE arabica coffee inventories reached a 2.25-month low of 494,508 bags.
Compounding the bearish outlook, global coffee exports for the current marketing year have fallen by 0.3% year-on-year to 138.658 million bags, according to the International Coffee Organization. In contrast, projections indicate a potential increase in global coffee production to a record 178.848 million bags for 2025/26.
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