On Wednesday, July NY world sugar #11 (SBN26) closed down by 0.56 (-3.64%), while August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ26) fell by 15.00 (-3.32%). This decline follows a sharp drop in gasoline prices, which plunged nearly 4%, negatively impacting ethanol prices and leading Brazilian sugar mills to favor sugar production, as it is now more profitable than ethanol by 0.7 to 1 cent per pound.
Last Friday, Green Pool Commodity Specialists revised their global 2026/27 sugar deficit estimate to -4.30 million metric tons (MMT) from -1.66 MMT, indicating potential supply issues. Additionally, Brazil’s sugar production for the 2026/27 season may fall to 42.5 MMT, down 3% year-on-year, as mills shift towards ethanol production. The USDA also projected a return to a sugar surplus in India, estimating a production of 35.25 MMT for the 2025/26 season, an increase of 25% year-on-year, based on favorable weather conditions.
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