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Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F)
Q4 2024 Earnings Call
Feb 05, 2025, 5:00 p.m. ET

Ford Motor Company Reports Record Revenue as New CFO Takes the Helm

Contents Overview

• Prepared Comments
• Question and Answer Session
• Call Participants

Prepared Comments:

Operator

Good day, everyone. My name is Leila, and I will be your conference operator today. I’d like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call [Operator instructions]. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Lynn Antipas Tyson, executive director of investor relations.

Lynn Antipas Tyson — Executive Director, Investor Relations

Thank you. Welcome to Ford Motor Company’s fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. Joining me today are Jim Farley, president and chief executive officer, and Sherry House, our new CFO, starting tomorrow, February 6th. For the Q&A, we also have John Lawler, vice chair and current CFO, along with Cathy O’Callaghan, CEO of Ford Credit.

Today’s discussion may include some non-GAAP references, which are reconciled to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. This deck, along with our other earnings materials, can be found at shareholder.ford.com.

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Our dialogue will also include forward-looking statements about expectations; actual results may differ. Key factors that could cause variations are listed on Page 23. Unless otherwise indicated, all comparisons made are year-over-year.

The company’s EBIT, EPS, and free cash flow have been reported on an adjusted basis. Looking ahead, on February 11th, both Jim Farley and Sherry House will participate in a fireside chat in New York at the Wolfe Global Auto Tech and Mobility Conference. Now, I’ll turn the call over to Jim.

James D. Farley — President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director

Thank you, Lynn, and welcome, everyone. We appreciate your participation. First, I’d like to extend a warm welcome to Sherry House on her inaugural earnings call as CFO, and I would like to acknowledge John Lawler as he transitions to vice chair. Last year marked notable progress for Ford, focusing on our core strengths.

We set a record for global revenue at $185 billion, marking our fourth consecutive year of growth. This growth is supported by our strong product lines, with Ford leading the pickup truck market. The F-Series maintains its title as America’s best-selling pickup truck and overall vehicle.

Meanwhile, the Ranger has emerged as a formidable global franchise that contributes to profitability in various markets. Notably, Ranger secured the North America Truck of the Year award, making it the fifth consecutive time Ford has achieved this recognition.

Hybrid trucks are an emerging growth segment for us. They allow us to dominate revenue and enhance pricing power in the pickup market, providing innovative features like Pro Power Onboard. Our Transit family remains the best-selling van globally, demonstrating our commercial strength.

In the commercial sector, we emphasize unit sales and enhancing our product offerings to optimize revenue. The previous year witnessed growth in sales of high-series Super Duties and transit wagons. Concurrently, we’re creating recurring revenue streams from our software and services business, evidenced by a 27% increase in software subscriptions, now approaching 650,000.

Our telematics software doubled, mobile service units grew by 57%, and customer retention improved. In 2024, one-quarter of new telematics customers opted for added software like dash cams and fleet management solutions. Since launching BlueCruise, the number of equipped units has surpassed 700,000, with our customers collectively driving over 300 million miles hands-free.

Our commitment to customer relationships is evolving, moving beyond sales to foster long-term engagement and new growth avenues at Ford. Last year, we captured the highest revenue share among all brands in our home market, but we recognize the need to align revenue growth with enhanced execution and cost management.

We are implementing transformative practices across our operational framework. Our focus is on recruiting top talent and collaborating with industry experts to address operational challenges. We are benchmarked against best practices to enhance efficiency.

Last year’s changes yielded approximately $500 million in net cost reductions during the second half, a preliminary step in a broader strategy to close our cost competitiveness gap over the next few years. We stay alert to shifts in market dynamics, particularly in the EV sector, which continues to grow and introduces intense competition and pricing pressures.

On the hybrid front, we observe aggressive growth and diversification within markets, showcasing performance benefits, including fuel economy, alongside traditional pickup attributes such as towing capacity and payload. In the internal combustion engine market, inventory levels and pricing are stabilizing, while we note the ongoing expansion of Chinese OEMs.

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Ford Reveals Strong Performance and Future Strategies Amidst Industry Changes

Ford’s leadership discusses the current financial outlook and strategic initiatives as they navigate evolving industry dynamics.

Ford’s operational effectiveness is impressive, with supply chains expanding globally and exports seeing significant growth. This year, the company expects their adjusted EBIT to fall within the $7 billion to $8.5 billion range. Sherry will provide more details shortly, but it’s important to note that this guidance does not include potential impacts from the current administration’s policy changes.

From an operational perspective, Ford believes that a few weeks of tariffs are manageable, considering the rate and flow of their products. However, the company acknowledges that if tariffs from Canada and Mexico persist at a rate of 25%, they could have a substantial impact on the industry. This could result in billions of dollars in lost profits and negatively affect U.S. jobs and the value chain in the auto sector. Increased tariffs would also lead to higher prices for consumers.

Ford has expressed confidence in dialogue with government leaders, believing that there is a commitment to bolstering, rather than diminishing, the American auto industry. As the leading U.S. automaker and top exporter of vehicles, Ford welcomes the administration’s trade agreement with Mexico and Canada while keeping a close eye on developments in China. The auto industry is undergoing a fundamental change against a backdrop of shifting trade policies and the rise of digital vehicles, alongside increased market competition from Chinese manufacturers.

Despite the challenges, Ford emphasizes its control over its future. The company is set to launch several key products this year, including the Expedition, Navigator, and the all-new Electric PUMA. By combining revenue growth with stringent cost management efforts, Ford is targeting significant advancements in operational efficiency.

To achieve this multi-billion-dollar potential in cost savings, Ford is focusing on various strategic areas. This includes faster identification of defects, boosting manufacturing quality through supplier engagement, and reducing complexities in operations to eliminate waste. In the fourth quarter alone, the company executed 9 million over-the-air updates, with 80% addressing customer concerns. Efforts to enhance their software development process by incorporating more rigorous code reviews and integrating AI and data analytics are underway, aiming to improve manufacturing efficiency.

Initial metrics show promise for the company’s 2025 cost reduction goals, with over $1 billion in product design cost-reduction projects planned for the year. There has been fewer lost units during vehicle launches, and an 18% improvement in vehicle quality has been recorded for the 2025 model year.

Addressing electric vehicle (EV) strategy, Ford is committed to developing affordable and high-volume vehicles that cater to the growing market for small and medium-sized trucks and utilities. This segment is well-suited for EVs, given their typical use cases and lower battery costs, which can lead to accessible pricing for consumers.

However, challenges remain with larger retail electric vehicles that require significant battery capacity, further complicating their economic viability. Retail consumers have shown resistance to paying a premium for these larger models, making the business case for them challenging. In contrast, commercial customers are more willing to invest in larger EVs due to measurable total cost of ownership (TCO) advantages, especially where depot charging is feasible.

Ford is prepared to develop flexible platforms capable of supporting diverse powertrains, as they address customer needs for affordability and range. The company is in a significant transformation phase. Despite the complexities, optimism surrounds the commitment to the Ford+ plan, which aims to enhance capital efficiency and margins. Jim will now hand the discussion over to Sherry for insights on last year’s performance and this year’s outlook.

Sherry House — Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Jim, and greetings to everyone on the call today. I appreciate the opportunity to provide an update on our business. Since taking on this role, I am grateful for the support from John Lawler, Jim, and the entire Ford team.

Looking back at 2024, it was another pivotal year as we advanced the Ford+ strategy. We closed the year with global wholesales increasing 1% to 4.5 million units, driven by growth in Ford Pro. Revenue rose by 5% to $185 billion, marking 11 straight quarters of growth.

Our strategic approach, allowing both retail and commercial customers choices through a diverse product portfolio, continues to prove effective. We achieved $10.2 billion in adjusted EBIT with a margin of 5.5%. Our adjusted free cash flow stood at $6.7 billion, and we exceeded our cash conversion target, achieving 65%. Our balance sheet remains robust with over $28 billion in cash and nearly $47 billion in liquidity, which we view as prudent in this fluctuating industry landscape. Having this extra cash empowers us to pursue strategic initiatives that will enhance our growth and return on invested capital.

Ford Announces Dividends and Positive Outlook Amid Market Challenges

Ford Motor Company is reinforcing its commitment to investors by allocating 40% to 50% of free cash flow back to shareholders. Over the last three years, Ford has paid out more than $10 billion in dividends.

First Quarter Dividends Declared

Today, Ford declared a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share, along with a supplemental dividend of $0.15 per share. These payments are set to be distributed on March 3rd to shareholders who are on record by February 18th. A look into Ford Pro’s division shows a promising outlook with a 15% increase in revenue, reaching $67 billion due to high demand for Super Duty Chassis Cabs and Transit wagons, alongside a 9% rise in wholesales. The full year EBIT stood at $9 billion, boasting a margin of 13.5%.

Software and Service Revenue Growth

Software and physical services accounted for 13% of Ford Pro’s EBIT. The Ford Pro Intelligence system has played a crucial role in securing recurring revenue with high margins. Metrics such as paid subscriptions, attachment rates, and average monthly revenue per unit saw significant growth in 2024. The Model e division, where much of the focus has been, managed to achieve $1.4 billion in cost savings, despite a $100 million increase in spending on new battery plants and next-generation electric vehicles (EVs).

Challenges and Responses in the Market

The automotive industry faces pricing pressures, resulting in revenue and wholesale reductions of 35% and 9% year-over-year, respectively. Nonetheless, Model e remains dedicated to enhancing gross margins and managing capital allocation efficiently to foster future growth. Ford Blue reported flat revenue for the full year, with EBIT at $5.3 billion and a margin of 5.2%. This stability was partly due to effective pricing strategies offsetting a 2% decline in wholesales brought on by the phase-out of low-margin products.

Financial Outlook for 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, Ford anticipates adjusted EBIT between $7 billion and $8.5 billion, with adjusted free cash flow projected at $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion. Capital expenditures are expected to range from $8 billion to $9 billion. The impact of potential tariffs on pricing and supplier responses remains uncertain, but Ford expects the effect on performance to lessen in 2025 compared to later years.

In terms of industry pricing, the company plans for a 2% decrease, anticipating that this will be somewhat counterbalanced by revenue from new product launches and approximately $1 billion in net cost savings derived mainly from reduced warranty expenses and material costs. Most of these financial benefits are expected to manifest in the latter half of the year.

Future Projections and Segment Performance

The first quarter of 2025 is projected to break even, with expected declines in EBIT relative to the fourth quarter of 2024 attributed to wholesales and mix effects. Ford’s upcoming truck launch at the Oakville factory aims to enhance production stability during significant launch periods.

Within its segments, Ford Pro is poised for another successful year with EBIT targets between $7.5 billion and $8 billion. The company sees strong fundamentals, particularly in North America and Europe. Conversely, Ford Model e is expected to record a loss of $5 billion to $5.5 billion, aiming to stabilize losses year-over-year despite ongoing pricing pressures in the industry.

The Ford Blue segment anticipates EBIT between $3.5 billion and $4 billion, reflecting challenges such as lower volumes. However, cost reduction initiatives are already in progress, contributing positively to Ford’s financial health.

Moving Forward: A Commitment to Cost Management

The performance throughout 2024 indicates a solid advancement in Ford’s Ford+ strategy, showcasing discipline in capital management and a focus on rewarding shareholders. As the automotive landscape evolves, Ford’s team remains committed to enhancing business operations and improving product quality, maintaining a keen eye on achieving at least $1 billion in cost reductions this year.

Questions & Answers:

Operator

[Operator instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Dan Levy with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Dan Levy — Analyst

Hi. Good evening. Thank you for taking the questions. I wanted to double-click on your commentary first on calendarization of earnings throughout the year.

In the first quarter, you have to assume, I think, something like a 25% volume decline to get to breakeven. If you could just talk through that, what’s the confidence of recovery in subsequent quarters? Is it volume? And then, should we expect inventory to be fully rightsized by the end of the first quarter?

Sherry House — Chief Financial Officer

OK. So as I talked about, for the year over year, you’re really seeing the pricing come in and also the net cost improvements year over year. But when you go for just the first quarter, what you’re seeing is largely the impact of wholesales…

Ford’s Strategic Outlook Amidst Market Challenges

Financial Adjustments in Vehicle Production

Ford is facing various economic pressures this quarter. Company leaders report a significant drop in wholesales, down nearly 20% compared to the previous quarter. Factors contributing to this decline include no further stock buildup, as well as negative exchange rates, particularly in Argentina, Brazil, and Turkey.

Inventory and Production Insights

James D. Farley — President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director

When looking at inventory, we closed last year with around 620,000 gross units, which fell approximately 5% in January. As we navigate production at our factories, especially those producing Super Duty trucks, the Navigator, and Expedition models, we anticipate an additional decrease in stock levels.

Sherry House — Chief Financial Officer

As we project for the first quarter, we intend to reduce inventory significantly again, with a target of decreasing by roughly 40,000 units. This strategic adjustment will place our dealer day supply in the desired mid-50 range.

The Future of Electric Vehicles

Dan Levy — Analyst

Jim, your commentary regarding electric vehicles (EVs) has been insightful. Considering the recent statements about potential reductions in EV mandates, how will this affect your plans for EV development, especially the next-generation Lightning scheduled for late 2027?

James D. Farley — President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director

We remain confident about our EV initiatives. Despite possible changes in regulations, the market for EVs continues to grow, now representing 8% of the U.S. industry. Consumer satisfaction with these vehicles remains high, and once switched, buyers usually do not return to traditional combustion engines. This market trend is not only strong domestically but is echoed globally.

Our strategy on the skunkworks platform will play a crucial role moving forward. In the face of economic shifts, ensuring affordability while maintaining performance becomes paramount. The decision made a few years back to develop this platform positions us well for future success.

We are committed to adjusting our vehicle lineup as necessary, but we also want to ensure we distinguish our EVs from more generic offerings. Our focus on commercial EVs shows promising potential as these customers express enthusiasm for our products.

Navigating Uncertainty in Business Strategy

Daniel Roeska — Analyst

Thank you for addressing that, Jim. Given the current unpredictability in the industry, what principles will guide your decision-making? What aspects of your approach have evolved in response to these uncertainties?

James D. Farley — President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director

First, maintaining cost control is essential for Ford. We are dedicated to reducing operational costs while enhancing product quality. This focus remains non-negotiable. Furthermore, we acknowledge the market demand for affordable vehicles, which necessitates a transformation in Ford’s approach.

Diversity in our powertrain offerings is also a key principle. Our past investments in hybrid technology proved to be a wise decision. This principle drives us to explore additional alternatives like Extended-Range Electric Vehicles (EREVs) that adapt to consumer needs.

Finally, developing recurring revenue sources is crucial. Our Ford Pro division is at the forefront of this strategy, demonstrating the potential of large-scale service offerings, including software subscriptions for our vehicles. This evolution is not unfolding in the retail sector but significantly in the commercial B2B landscape.

Emphasizing a strong company culture and attracting top talent remains vital for our ongoing success. Our ability to implement these strategies effectively hinges on having the best people on our team.

Ford’s Financial Outlook: Challenges and Strategies Amid Model e Performance

Key Principles for Sustainable Growth

Ford’s leadership emphasizes maintaining a sustainable culture focused on quality and cost efficiency. As they prepare to execute their strategic plans, several key principles guide their actions for the future.

Insights on Model e’s Flat Guidance

Daniel Roeska — Analyst

Thanks. Sherry, regarding the guidance for Model e in 2025, considering higher volumes in Europe, anticipated improvements with PTC in H2, and falling lithium prices, why is the overall guidance flat?

Sherry House — Chief Financial Officer

We’re seeing improvements, but Gen 1 products remain unprofitable. It’s notable that we can maintain flat guidance while significantly increasing volumes. One challenge encompasses an additional $1 billion in costs associated with our BOSK battery factory and Gen 2 products. About half of that is engineering-related, and the other half pertains to the BOSK area, which totals $0.5 billion more than previous expenditures. Weaknesses in Model e this year stem from pricing pressures in both Europe and North America. Despite these challenges, the Mach-E has performed exceptionally well, with over a 30% sales increase quarter over quarter, exceeding average transaction prices.

Daniel Roeska — Analyst

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Adam Jonas — Analyst

Thanks, everyone. Jim, I understand you hold the Xiaomi SU7 in high regard.

James D. Farley — President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director

Absolutely.

Adam Jonas — Analyst

Given that this vehicle is from a country with high import tariffs, do you believe U.S. policies will effectively keep Chinese EVs out long term? Considering historical shifts in the auto industry during the ’70s and ’80s, what’s your take?

James D. Farley — President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director

Thanks, Adam. Tom Friedman wrote compellingly on this subject. The level of subsidies in China is substantial, and these vehicles integrate deeply into digital life. We must develop policies on privacy and national security, as these cars operate as data collection devices, unlike traditional cars. Addressing the unfair competitive edge concerning subsidies will be vital. Ultimately, a company must compete on merit, appealing products, and cost efficiency. Thus, I believe it’s essential to collaborate with government partners to establish a fair environment while ensuring management remains accountable to outperform competitors.

Adam Jonas — Analyst

Thanks, Jim. One last point: the subject of autonomy hasn’t been much discussed. Considering the recent focus on AI, how does Ford plan to evolve its strategy in autonomy?

James D. Farley — President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director

We’re at a critical juncture. Level 3 automation is on the horizon. BlueCruise has surpassed 300 million miles, demonstrating consumer interest, even as pricing becomes competitive. Although we may not be first to market, we prioritize execution quality. Improvements from the former Argo team have positioned us for success in Level 2 and Level 3 systems. BlueCruise consistently receives awards for its superior performance in Level 2. Level 3 appears to be a significant opportunity for highway driving with minimal driver input. We’re confident in our abilities but are also open to enhancing our strategies through partnerships for Level 4 autonomy.

Adam Jonas — Analyst

Thank you, Jim.

Operator

Next, we have Emmanuel Rosner from Wolfe Research. Please unmute your line.

Emmanuel Rosner — Analyst

Thank you. My first question is regarding your plans for cost savings this year, targeting a net reduction of $1 billion.

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Ford Aims for Cost Improvements as Pricing Challenges Loom

Drivers of Cost Improvement: A Closer Look

Executives at Ford discussed their strategies to achieve net cost improvements this year, despite facing substantial cyclical challenges. CFO Sherry House expressed confidence in their granular business plan, which focuses on enhancing efficiencies across all segments. Notably, attention has been directed to minimizing material costs and warranty expenses. The company is seeking outside benchmarks to identify best practices and strengthen performance in these areas.

Furthermore, House highlighted that Ford has filled about 90% of its product pipeline for the year. By pinpointing potential cost savings from new product designs and scheduling their introduction throughout the quarters, Ford is positioning itself to realize these savings on time.

Shift to the Second Half: Execution Challenges Ahead

When asked about the timing of cost improvements, House reiterated that the company’s achievements are expected to be back-loaded in the year. This delay reflects the time it takes to implement the comprehensive plans laid out for cost management. CEO James D. Farley underlined the strength of Ford’s offerings, suggesting a sense of optimism in their approach.

Pricing Pressures in the Pickup Market

In response to analyst Emmanuel Rosner’s inquiry regarding pricing dynamics, House acknowledged that Ford anticipates a 2% price moderation industry-wide, although Ford aims to perform slightly better than that. With significant pickup inventories sitting at nearly 100 days on dealer lots—including Ford, GM, and Ram—the potential for significant pricing pressure looms large. This environment begs the question of whether a price war could be forthcoming in the pickup sector.

House revealed that as of the end of the previous quarter, only 13% of model year ’25 vehicles were included in their inventory. By the end of the first quarter, she expects that figure to rise to 50%, which should help elevate transaction prices despite current pressures. New product releases, such as the Navigator, Expedition, and F-150, are expected to bolster the situation.

Compact vehicle lines, particularly in the Pro segment, are experiencing heightened competition. House pointed out that daily rental fleets are feeling significant pricing pressures. The necessity for disciplined inventory management was emphasized by Farley, who noted that maintaining pricing integrity is crucial in this challenging environment.

Future Prospects for the Pro Segment

Turning to the Pro segment, analyst Mark Delaney questioned the company’s outlook for profitability amid a growing focus on software and services. House acknowledged current headwinds, especially concerning daily rental fleets, while also noting the potential of incorporating more electric vehicles into the Pro portfolio. Though EVs are gradually being integrated, they are not yet a significant percentage of the mix.

Looking forward, House seems optimistic that material costs, product costs, and warranty expenses will witness efficiencies that could lead to improved overall profitability in the Pro business. She confirmed that the revenue mix for Pro has started shifting, with services currently accounting for approximately 13% of profitability, targeting a growth to 20% in the future.

Ford’s refreshed F-Series lineup will continue to be a crucial driver for the Pro business, with the expectation that the product’s updates will help maintain and grow profitability in the coming years.

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Ford Discusses Future Strategies Amid Market Challenges

Ford’s leadership addresses competition, tariffs, and evolving vehicle strategies during recent earnings call.

Ford is introducing their latest lineup, including the brand new Super Duty one-ton transit aimed at Europe. This fresh offering highlights a strong commitment to innovation. Company representatives acknowledged potential reactions from competitors but expressed confidence in their strategy as they now focus on improving vehicle margins.

Vehicle repair margins are currently at 35%, while software margins have soared to between 50% and 60%. Ford sees significant potential in these areas as a method to enhance its stability in an uncertain market.

Mark Delaney — Analyst

Shifting focus to tariffs, Delaney asked about the impact of possible 25% tariffs that could be implemented soon. He acknowledged the difficulty in predicting these costs but pushed for clarity on how Ford might absorb them, particularly if they are long-lasting.

James D. Farley — President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director

Farley emphasized that in the short term, Ford is in a good position to manage potential tariff impacts. His team has adjusted stock levels and manufacturing strategies in both the U.S. and Mexico. Ford currently manufactures over 80% of its vehicles domestically and plans for new electric vehicle (EV) facilities in Tennessee and Kentucky. However, if tariffs persist, drastic changes may be needed, including the construction of new plants.

Notably, Farley questioned why other automakers, such as Hyundai Kia and Toyota, can import large numbers of vehicles without facing similar tariffs. He highlighted the need for a comprehensive tariff strategy that treats all manufacturers fairly, asserting that the current policies benefit Ford’s import competitors.

Mark Delaney — Analyst

Delaney followed up with questions about Ford’s free cash flow expectations. He observed a decline in this metric and wondered how working capital and inventory levels might affect it.

Sherry House — Chief Financial Officer

House explained that the guidance for free cash flow aligns with targets between 50% and 60%, though they had been higher previously. She attributed some variations to timing differences, particularly in warranty and marketing incentives, which should stabilize moving forward. Although she refrained from detailing credit distribution, expectations remain strong.

Joseph Spak — Analyst

Spak requested more information on Ford’s multi-energy strategy, especially around Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREVs). He sought clarity on how the company plans to market this strategy, since consumer demand would be crucial for success.

James D. Farley — President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director

Farley provided insights from industry leaders like Li Auto, where customers largely perceive EREVs as electric vehicles due to their electric mileage performance. He noted the customer appeal of smaller, more affordable batteries that provide a comparable experience to traditional internal combustion engine vehicles.

According to Farley, many consumers appreciate the instant acceleration offered by EVs while avoiding the high costs typically associated with larger electric vehicles. While not perfect for towing, he believes EREVs appeal strongly to consumers who enjoy driving larger vehicles without range anxiety. He also mentioned the growing acceptance of hybrids among customers looking for efficiency beyond fuel savings.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 0 minutes

Call Participants:

Lynn Antipas Tyson — Executive Director, Investor Relations

James D. Farley — President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director

Sherry House — Chief Financial Officer

Dan Levy — Analyst

Jim Farley — President, Chief Executive Officer, and Director

Daniel Roeska — Analyst

Adam Jonas — Analyst

Emmanuel Rosner — Analyst

Mark Delaney — Analyst

Joseph Spak — Analyst

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