Nvidia’s Earnings Report: Will It Drive the Stock Higher?
November is proving to be an eventful month, marked by the U.S. presidential election and a Federal Reserve meeting that resulted in another drop in the prime lending rate. Amidst these major events, companies across various sectors have been unveiling their third-quarter earnings.
Yet, there’s more to come this month. On November 20, semiconductor giant Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) will release its third-quarter earnings. Here’s why I believe the stock could see significant gains following this announcement and my recommendations if you’re thinking about investing. Is it a buy? Read on to find out.
What to Expect on November 20
As a tech investor, I’ve dedicated time to analyzing earnings reports from AI companies in recent weeks. I started with the “Magnificent Seven” — Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Meta Platforms, Amazon, Tesla, and of course, Nvidia.
Nvidia is the last of the Magnificent Seven to report earnings this season, and anticipation is high as the company prepares to unveil its results on November 20.
Image source: Getty Images.
Nvidia’s Stock Movements After Earnings
The chart below outlines Nvidia’s share price fluctuations from November 2022 to November 2024, highlighting key earnings reports with purple circles.
NVDA data by YCharts
Looking at the bigger picture, Nvidia stock has seen impressive growth over the past two years, with a return nearing 1,000%. The ongoing AI boom has greatly contributed to this remarkable increase.
Another point to note is the notable volatility in Nvidia’s stock leading up to earnings reports. In the recent two weeks, from November 1 to November 13, shares surged by 8%. This kind of movement suggests that investors are on high alert ahead of the upcoming report.
The Importance of Nvidia’s Earnings Release
For Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report, I believe most investors will not focus heavily on the company’s third-quarter results. Instead, attention will be primarily on future guidance.
Wall Street analysts will be particularly focused on the anticipated launch of Nvidia’s Blackwell GPU architecture. So far, the buzz around Blackwell has been impressive, with reports indicating that the new chipsets are already sold out for the next year.
However, issues have recently surfaced with Super Micro Computer, Nvidia’s key partner. After a series of disruptions, rumors suggest Nvidia might be shifting Blackwell orders to other IT infrastructure specialists. These rumors could evolve into a problem for Nvidia, and more clarity could come during the report or the following conference call.
Conclusion and Recommendations
Predicting Nvidia’s stock movement post-earnings is tricky. Demand for the Blackwell architecture is reportedly immense, with analysts at Morgan Stanley projecting $10 billion in sales from the product by year-end. This sales forecast is significant, considering that Nvidia made nearly $10 billion in revenue for the entire 2020 fiscal year.
If the upcoming report confirms that Blackwell is performing as expected, I would anticipate a positive reaction in the stock price. Conversely, if guidance exceeds expectations, Nvidia’s stock could reach new heights.
On the flip side, I’m cautious that any delays in moving away from Supermicro might be detrimental. Although I maintain an optimistic view of Blackwell’s long-term prospects, near-term complications could provide opportunities for competitors. Such challenges could affect growth and potentially lead to a stock sell-off.
While I remain hopeful for Nvidia’s report next week, I advise investors to stay on the sidelines, particularly with recent stock momentum. This report bears significant weight, and the details surrounding Blackwell need more clarity. Investing in Nvidia stock before the earnings report seems more akin to day trading than long-term investment.
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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Adam Spatacco has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
