December arabica coffee (KCZ26) dropped to a 2.5-month low, declining by $6.30 (-2.24%), while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) fell $0.52 (-1.52%) today. The declines come as the International Coffee Organization (ICO) projected a record global coffee crop of 183.6 million bags for the 2025/26 season, leading to a surplus of 3 million bags—the first in five years.
Brazil contributed to the surplus with total coffee exports rising 31% year-over-year in August to 4.155 million bags. The increase included a 26% rise in arabica exports to 2.87 million bags and a 54% rise in robusta exports to 953,592 bags. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s coffee exports jumped 13.7% year-over-year to 1.33 million metric tons for the 2026 calendar year, further augmenting global supplies.
Concerns about the El Niño weather pattern potentially impacting Brazil’s 2026/27 crop are providing some bullish pressure, despite falling inventories for arabica, which are at a 27-year low of 217,646 bags. The USDA forecasts that global coffee production in the 2026-27 season will rise by 6% to 189.7 million bags, bolstered by favorable growing conditions in Brazil.
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