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Coffee prices are experiencing downward pressure, with March arabica coffee (KCH26) down -2.60 (-0.68%) and January ICE robusta coffee (RMF26) down -80 (-1.75%) as of today. The European Parliament approved a 1-year delay to the deforestation law, which is maintaining ample coffee supplies from regions including Africa, Indonesia, and South America.
Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received only 20.4 mm of rain last week, 39% of the historical average, sparking concerns about dryness. Meanwhile, ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags, and robusta coffee inventories decreased to a 6.75-month low of 4,342 lots. US imports of Brazilian coffee have dropped by 52% year-on-year from August to October due to tariffs, totaling 983,970 bags.
Forecasts indicate Brazil will produce 70.7 million bags of coffee in the 2026/27 marketing year, a 29% increase, while Vietnam’s coffee exports from January to October 2025 rose 13.4% to 1.31 million metric tons, boosting overall global supplies. The International Coffee Organization reported a 0.3% year-on-year decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year, totaling 138.658 million bags.
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