On Monday, October NY world sugar #11 closed up +0.35 (+2.39%), marking a three-week high, while October London ICE white sugar #5 rose by +7.90 (+1.71%). The increase in sugar prices is attributed to forecasts of a global sugar deficit in 2026/27, with Covrig Analytics estimating a deficit of -300,000 metric tons, a shift from a previously projected surplus of +100,000 metric tons.
Factors contributing to this deficit include concerns over India’s sugar crop, with the Indian Meteorological Department reporting that monsoon rainfall during August and September is expected to be below normal, the weakest in 11 years. Additionally, projections for Brazil’s sugar output have been lowered, with reports indicating a potential decrease in production due to increased ethanol production and adverse weather patterns from an El Niño event.
Looking ahead, StoneX has raised its forecast for the global sugar deficit to -1.7 million metric tons, while the USDA predicts a drop in global sugar production to 184.854 million metric tons for 2026/27, following a record 186.056 million metric tons in 2025/26. This decline is coupled with an expected increase in global human sugar consumption, projected to reach a record 179.991 million metric tons.
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