On Wednesday, September arabica coffee (KCU26) closed at $2.80 higher (+0.86%), while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) increased by $0.37 (+0.96%). Robusta coffee reached a 1-week high as rain forecasts for Vietnam’s Central Highlands diminished, impacting the nation’s coffee harvest during the ongoing monsoon season.
The Brazilian coffee harvest remains behind pace, with Cooxupe co-op reporting it was 67.3% complete as of July 31, compared to 74.2% the previous year. Current statistics indicate that ICE arabica inventories are at a 2.5-year low of 251,417 bags, while robusta inventories slightly decreased to 4,206 lots. USDA forecasts predict a 6% global coffee output increase to 189.7 million bags for the 2026-27 season, aided by favorable growing conditions in Brazil.
In Vietnam, coffee exports surged by 21.1% year-over-year during the first seven months of 2026, reaching 1.31 million metric tons, contributing to bearish trends for robusta prices. El Niño weather patterns may pose risks for Brazil’s 2026 crop, potentially affecting future production yields across major coffee-growing regions.
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