Commodity analysts anticipate continued growth in copper prices, with Goldman Sachs projecting a target of $13,735 per ton by year-end, a 10% increase from its previous forecast of $12,465. Citigroup is even more aggressive, aiming for $14,500 per ton this month and $15,000 within a year. Currently, copper prices are just below $14,000 per ton, approximately $500 shy of the record set in January, marking a year-to-date rise of 10%.
Goldman’s revision is largely attributed to a weaker supply outlook, citing disruptions at major mines like Grasberg in Indonesia and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a reduced global mine supply forecast by 350,000 tons. The bank projects that the copper deficit outside the U.S. could soar to 640,000 tons, a significant increase from 60,000 tons previously.
Both firms highlight sustained structural demand driven by electrification and energy transition projects, as well as uncertainties around U.S. tariffs on refined copper, affecting market sentiment. The tighter market balance is expected to support copper prices in the coming months.
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