May arabica coffee (KCK26) closed down -1.45 points (-0.51%) and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) fell -67 points (-1.78%) on Tuesday. Coffee prices declined after an early advance due to long liquidation sparked by the Brazilian real hitting a 1.5-month low against the dollar, which can increase export sales from Brazil.
Supply concerns initially boosted coffee prices amid disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz due to the ongoing war in Iran, raising costs for importers. Meanwhile, beneficial rains in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region improved the coffee crop outlook, with Somar Meteorologia reporting 78 mm of rain—131% of the historical average. Brazil’s coffee production is projected to rise by 17.2% year-on-year to a record 66.2 million bags in 2026, as per Conab, while Rabobank forecasts global coffee production will reach a record 180 million bags for the 2026/27 season, up by 8 million bags from the previous year.
