December arabica coffee (KCZ26) has fallen by $11.55, or 3.73%, while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) dropped by $59, or 1.70%. This decline marks a continuation of a week-long drop, with arabica hitting a five-week low and robusta reaching a 2.75-month low, largely due to anticipated increases in Brazil’s coffee harvest, which is currently 97% complete.
Weather patterns in Brazil have also contributed to price concerns; above-normal rainfall in Minas Gerais, the primary arabica-growing region, reached 127% of the historical average, which could positively affect next year’s harvest. Simultaneously, Colombia’s recent earthquake has led to partially resumed coffee exports through the Buenaventura port, though traffic remains limited. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects a record global coffee output of 189.7 million bags for the 2026-27 season, primarily driven by conditions in Brazil.
While inventories for arabica coffees are at a 27-year low of 223,911 bags, robusta stocks have risen to a 9.25-month high of 5,004 lots. Factors such as anticipated El Niño effects in Brazil and increased coffee exports from Vietnam, which rose 21.1% year-over-year, further complicate the market dynamics.
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