Cocoa prices fell on September 6, 2023, with September ICE NY cocoa closing down 42 points (-0.71%) and September ICE London cocoa dropping 16 points (-0.37%). This decline followed a three-week high, driven by signs of increased cocoa supplies from Ghana, which reported a harvest of 750,000 metric tons (MT) for the 2025/26 season—a 25.6% increase from the previous year’s 597,000 MT.
Recent shipping data highlighted that Ivory Coast farmers exported 2.11 million MT of cocoa, a 20% increase year-on-year. However, mixed demand reports emerged: Q2 European cocoa grindings declined by 4.6% to 316,366 MT, while North American grindings rose 7.7% to 109,659 MT, surpassing expectations of a decline. Additionally, Asian cocoa grindings improved by 25% year-on-year, reaching 224,646 MT.
Looking ahead, the global cocoa surplus estimate was revised down to 25,000 MT for 2026/27 due to potential production declines, as weather patterns—specifically El Niño—may adversely affect yields. The forecast also indicates a possible fall in Nigerian cocoa production by 11% in 2025/26, further supporting cocoa prices.
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