Intel stock (NASDAQ:INTC) surged nearly 16% in Tuesday’s trading following a Wall Street Journal report suggesting that Broadcom and TSMC are considering bids for the chipmaker. While no formal offers have been made, Broadcom appears interested in Intel’s chip design business, whereas TSMC may aim for a stake or complete control of Intel’s production facilities. Recently, Intel has shown signs of recovery as its manufacturing processes reach key milestones and its latest chips receive positive reviews. With supportive policies from the current Presidential administration for U.S. manufacturers like Intel, questions arise about whether selling at this juncture is prudent.
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Intel’s 18A Process Nodes Signal Potential Revival
Intel has invested significantly in its U.S. foundry operations in recent years. Despite losing nearly $13 billion last year, there are indications of a turnaround. The Intel 3 process node has been in mass production for several months and powers the Xeon 6 data center chips. Furthermore, Intel is currently sampling its new 18A process with laptop manufacturers. This new technology may help Intel regain its status as a leader in semiconductor manufacturing, an area where it has lagged behind giants TSMC and Samsung Electronics. Notably, while both Intel’s 18A and TSMC’s N2 processes use gate-all-around transistors, Intel incorporates backside power delivery, enhancing performance and efficiency. Big tech companies like Microsoft and Amazon have already contracted Intel for custom chips, including AI accelerators, showing increasing confidence in Intel’s manufacturing capabilities.
A Stronger Focus on U.S. Manufacturing
President Donald Trump has strongly supported U.S. manufacturing, which could benefit Intel given its extensive production facilities in the country. The current administration is advocating for AI chips to be produced domestically, ensuring that both design and production occur within the U.S. This push may generate substantial regulatory support, such as tariffs, which might encourage companies to rely more on U.S. suppliers like Intel. Potentially, Intel shareholders could miss considerable upside if Intel were to sell a stake or control to TSMC.
Positive Feedback on Latest Chip Releases
The performance of Intel’s new processors is also receiving favorable reviews. Early benchmarks from PassMark indicate that the new Arrow Lake-based Core Ultra 9 chip outperforms AMD’s Ryzen 9 processor by about 7%. Additionally, it is 34% faster than the previous i9-14900HX, with single-thread performance improving by 9%. Unlike Intel’s AI-focused Lunar Lake chips, these new processors emphasize raw power for demanding tasks. This release comes at a crucial moment as companies have under-invested in CPUs while focusing on GPUs to meet AI demands. With CPU spending expected to rebound, Intel might benefit from a market uptick after years of losing ground.
Intel’s Stock Performance Compared to the Market
Over the past four years, INTC stock performance has fluctuated significantly, contrasting with the more stable S&P 500 returns. For instance, annual returns included 6% in 2021, -47% in 2022, 95% in 2023, and -60% in 2024. In contrast, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio—which includes 30 stocks—has been notably less volatile and has consistently outperformed the S&P 500. This portfolio has yielded better returns with reduced risk, suggesting that it has provided a smoother investment experience.
For Intel shareholders who have weathered years of underperformance, this moment may not be the best time to sell. Transferring manufacturing to TSMC could mean losing out on potential growth, especially as the chip market may be on the verge of recovery. Currently, Intel stock is priced around $27 per share, translating to a valuation of just over 22 times consensus 2025 earnings—a reasonable figure in the current context. Our analysis values Intel stock at approximately $27 per share, aligning with its market price. For further insights, see our detailed analysis of Intel’s valuation.
| Returns | Feb 2025 MTD [1] |
Since start of 2024 [1] |
2017-25 Total [2] |
| INTC Return | 41% | -45% | -8% |
| S&P 500 Return | 1% | 28% | 173% |
| Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio | -2% | 21% | 719% |
[1] Returns as of 2/19/2025
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
