Is the Market Rally Nearing Its End or Gaining Momentum?

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As of Wednesday, oil prices have dropped about 4% following reports of a potential U.S.-Iran framework deal that could restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz within a month. Iranian state TV has claimed that Tehran intends to return commercial shipping to pre-war levels, with joint management of the straits alongside Oman and a withdrawal of U.S. forces.

In the stock market, the Nasdaq 100 has surged by 30% in less than two months, raising concerns about sustainability. Prominent investor Louis Navellier forecasts an additional 30% to 40% upside for AI-related stocks by the end of the year, attributing this to significant order backlogs driving sales and earnings. However, he acknowledges potential volatility ahead, especially as summer usually brings market fluctuations.

Meanwhile, recent college graduations have highlighted a cultural backlash against AI, evidenced by protest and boos during commencement speeches on the technology’s impact on jobs. Despite this sentiment, the unemployment and underemployment rates for recent graduates remain consistent with historical norms, indicating that while some sectors are affected by AI, others continue to expand.

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