The U.S. solar market is projected to nearly triple its capacity from 279 GWdc installed at year-end 2025 to 769 GWdc by 2036, according to a report from the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). This growth is fueled by rising electricity demand, particularly from data centers, with average annual capacity additions expected to exceed 44 GWdc. However, growth faces challenges such as policy uncertainty from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which has imposed tighter tax-credit timelines and increased project risks.
In 2025, the residential solar segment installed 4,647 MWdc, down 2% from 2024, while the commercial solar segment grew 6%, reaching 2,345 MWdc. The heightened tariffs on imported goods are driving up manufacturing costs, contributing to these market slowdowns. California’s transition to the Net Billing Tariff has also reduced the economic incentives for residential solar, likely leading to a slowdown in the market in 2026.
For potential investors, companies such as First Solar, Enphase Energy, and Canadian Solar are notable, reporting significant figures in recent quarters. First Solar’s net sales reached $1.04 billion in Q1 2026, a 24% increase year-over-year. Canadian Solar’s module shipments totaled 2.5 GW, a 64% decline year-over-year, though battery energy storage shipments grew by 142%. Meanwhile, Enphase Energy shipped 1.39 million microinverters in Q1 2026, marking a crucial expansion in home energy solutions.
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