Nickel prices are expected to rise due to a global supply shortage triggered by Indonesia’s decision to impose tighter production quotas, according to analysts at Macquarie Group. These restrictions, announced in December 2025, aim to reverse a supply glut and have already led to increased prices for nickel metal, nickel pig iron (NPI), and nickel ore.
Macquarie’s strategists, led by Jim Lennon, project a floor for LME-traded nickel prices between $17,000 and $18,000 per tonne, with current trading near this midpoint. The bank also forecasts a potential global market deficit this year as production struggles to meet demand, shifting from a previously anticipated surplus of 90,000 tonnes. Through January and February, NPI production fell by 10% year-on-year, impacting overall supply.
